Fernanda Nilson in Borgen Magazine | 09/03/2026
NORTH CHARLESTON, South Carolina — Anticipatory Social Protection is a strategy that delivers support before a crisis occurs. When a negative event is forecast, governments and institutions take early action to reduce its impact on vulnerable communities. Emiliano Graziano, Director of Institutional Development at Instituto Fome Zero (IFZ) or “Institute Zero Hunger,” spoke with The Borgen Project about why these programs are becoming increasingly vital in Brazil, the largest country in South America.
The Origin and Mission of Instituto Fome Zero
Graziano explained to The Borgen Project that “IFZ is a Brazilian nonprofit organization created in 2020 to strengthen the global fight against hunger, poverty and all forms of malnutrition, making this agenda a top priority for Brazil and the international community.” He also shared that the institute serves as a research and policy innovation hub advancing food security and social protection. Its mission is to promote evidence-based, integrated solutions that connect food security, social inclusion and climate resilience while strengthening governance and multi-sector partnerships across all levels, local and global.
In short, IFZ plays a central role in combating and preventing extreme hunger in Brazil, including through innovative approaches such as Anticipatory Social Protection.
How Anticipatory Approaches Can Prevent Hunger
The central goal of the anticipatory approach is to mitigate risk. Graziano explains, “Unlike traditional humanitarian assistance, which is triggered only after a crisis unfolds, Anticipatory Social Protection operates on scientific forecasts and early warning systems. When an imminent risk is detected, such as an alert for extreme drought, the system automatically releases funding to provide cash, food or other essential resources to vulnerable families. [This] enables them to take preventive measures such as reinforcing their homes, protecting assets or temporarily relocating.”
By acting proactively, cities and states can address the threat of extreme hunger before it escalates into a full-blown crisis. While this approach is innovative and has demonstrated results, it comes with challenges. Local and federal governments are often hesitant to provide social assistance based on potential risks rather than visible crises. Additionally, sustaining initiatives through changes in government leadership, such as a new administration, can be difficult, Graziano notes.
For more than five years, IFZ has supported policies that not only combat hunger but also prevent it. This is why Anticipatory Social Protection in Brazil has become one of the institute’s top priorities.
Vulnerable Population and Targeted Measures
The northeast region of Brazil is one of the most impoverished in the country with many areas lacking basic sanitation and health care. Graziano notes that food insecurity is particularly acute among traditional and Indigenous communities. “Quilombola and riverine populations, whose livelihoods depend directly on environmental integrity and territorial security, are highly susceptible to climate shocks and land-related conflicts. To better support these groups, Anticipatory Social Protection measures must be context-sensitive,” he explains.
This means considering metrics beyond drought forecasts. For example, rising unemployment or spikes in food prices in urban areas can have a direct impact on vulnerable populations. “For rural and Indigenous communities, support must go beyond cash, involving the advance distribution of drought-resistant seeds, agricultural tools or logistical assistance to transport crops before flooding occurs—protecting livelihoods, not just consumption,” Graziano adds.
Real-Life Examples of Early Support
As recently as July, Brazil’s Ministry of Integration and Regional Development approved emergency funds to mitigate the impacts of drought in the country’s northeast, Graziano explains. Rainfall shortages prompted the federal government to declare a state of emergency for approximately 578 municipalities, triggering the release of 1.7 million reais (about $310,000) to support affected communities.
Another notable example of Anticipatory Social Protection in Brazil is the One Million Cisterns Program. Graziano describes it as “one of Brazil’s largest social mobilization and citizenship initiatives, created by the Brazilian Semiarid Alliance (ASA Brasil) in 2003.” The program was originally designed to address water scarcity in the semiarid region and provide drinking water to millions during the dry season.
By collecting and storing rainwater during the wet season, families could maintain access to water throughout extended droughts. The program has since expanded to schools and now supports farmers in growing food year-round, demonstrating how anticipatory measures can sustain both livelihoods and food security.
The Future of Anticipatory Social Protection in Brazil
Earlier this year, Brazil was once again removed from the United Nations (U.N.) Hunger Map, demonstrating that sustained public policies can effectively combat hunger. Graziano points out that “The return to the Hunger Map was driven by policy dismantling and economic crisis. Remaining off the map requires protecting and integrating these policies.”
He highlights the importance of continuing to fund existing programs such as Bolsa Família (Family Allowance Program), which reaches more than 50 million people and provides low-income families with crucial financial support. In return, parents must take their children to regular health checkups and commit to sending them to school. This approach not only delivers immediate aid but also helps break the cycle of poverty for future generations.
Despite these successes, challenges remain. Climate instability, rising food prices and economic instability continue to threaten vulnerable communities, underscoring the ongoing need for anticipatory action. Graziano’s emphasis on the benefits of Anticipatory Social Protection highlights IFZ’s priorities and core mission.
He concludes the interview with a simple yet powerful message: “If there is one key message to share, it is this: timely protection transforms lives. This principle guides the Institute’s work and fuels our commitment to expanding Anticipatory Social Protection in Brazil, ensuring that communities and territories remain safeguarded in an increasingly challenging environment.”
Fernanda Nilson is based in North Charleston, SC, USA and focuses on Good News and Technology for The Borgen Project.
Originally published in Borgen Magazine
https://www.borgenmagazine.com/anticipatory-social-protection/
