It is no coincidence that both hunger and violent conflict are rising at an alarming rate. Owing to the increasingly interconnected and homogenized nature of food systems, the disruptive effects of war, climate change, and other man-made problems are fueling each other in a dangerous self-perpetuating cycle.
Caroline Delgado in Project Syndicate | 12/06/2023
STOCKHOLM | After decades of progress, world hunger is rising again – and fast. In 2021, around 30% of the world’s population – more than 2.3 billion people – could not be sure of having enough food year-round, and 12% faced severe food insecurity, meaning they had run out of food and gone for days without eating. The number of people in this latter category has nearly doubled since 2014, and most of the increase has happened since 2019. In 2021, some 45 million people were at risk of famine – having no food at all. And, of course, behind these headline figures are yawning geographic disparities: Over 20% of Africa’s population faces moderate or severe food insecurity, compared to only 2.5% in North America and Europe.
A major factor driving the resurgence of hunger is the alarming rise in violent conflict over the past few years. Russia’s war against Ukraine starkly illustrates how conflict can affect food systems, even those thousands of miles away from the artillery fire. Within three months of the invasion last year, Ukraine’s agricultural sector (a mainstay of its economy) had already suffered between $2.2 billion and $6.4 billion of damage. Landmines and unexploded ordnance now litter its fields; farm workers have joined the war effort or been displaced; and the basic lack of security has made production far more difficult. As a result, Ukraine’s grain production plummeted by 40% in 2022.
Worse, because Ukraine is one of the biggest suppliers of grain to the world market, the war has increased food insecurity globally. Part of the problem is that food systems have become increasingly homogenized. Three crops – wheat, maize, and rice – account for nearly half of all food calories traded worldwide, and their production has become concentrated in a handful of so-called breadbasket regions, one of which comprises Ukraine and Russia. In 2021, these two countries accounted for around 12% of internationally traded food calories and ranked among the top three exporters of wheat and maize. Before 2022, Russia was also a leading exporter of agricultural fertilizers.
Since the invasion, exports of food, feed, and fertilizer products from the two countries have dropped precipitously, triggering steep price spikes on world markets. As of 2021, some 33 countries – most of them low- or lower-middle-income – depended on Russia and Ukraine for at least 30% of their wheat imports. Moreover, 24 of them also relied on humanitarian food aid from the United Nations World Food Programme, owing to ongoing conflicts, climate change, and other factors. But the WFP, in turn, relied on Ukraine for half of its wheat supply. In a clear illustration of the war’s spillover effects, the WFP has been forced to cut back on the scale of its life-saving activities.
We have yet to see the full social and political implications of these spillover effects; but in some cases, we can anticipate that they will be profound. There is a long history of food shortages being exploited or weaponized in fragile, poorly governed countries, and of high food prices driving political turmoil or even revolution (as in the Arab Spring a decade ago).
None of this happens in a vacuum. Food systems, food insecurity, and conflict dynamics are all sensitive to myriad external factors. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic likely pushed more than 100 million people into extreme poverty, which will inevitably affect their ability to secure safe, sufficient, and nutritious food.
Moreover, climate change and other mounting environmental crises are pouring fuel on the fire by undermining both food security and peace. While Russia’s invasion was derailing Ukrainian agriculture in 2022, floods, droughts, and other extreme weather events were disrupting production in many other parts of the world, amplifying the shock to world food markets. In December 2022, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN predicted that global grain production, stocks, and trade will now fall to a three-year low.
Besides increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, climate change is also changing where particular crops can be grown. Pests and crop diseases are likely to spread more easily and more widely with rising temperatures and other environmental changes. Desertification, soil degradation, and antimicrobial resistance all pose looming threats to food production. There is growing evidence of links between environmental crises and conflict, each of which can reinforce the other and erode the ability of governments and economies to prevent or prepare for future shocks.
Owing to these interlinked crises, over 1% of the world’s population has now been forcibly displaced, with most stuck in temporary camps or dispersed into new communities in low- and middle-income countries. Some 82% of internally displaced persons and 67% of refugees originated in countries that suffered food crises in 2021, and around 40% of refugees were hosted by countries that themselves were in food crisis by the end of that year.
Rising food insecurity, conflict, and climate change will only add to these figures. The unprecedented wave of protests and riots worldwide in 2022 should come as no surprise. Countries heavily dependent on food imports from Russia and Ukraine – among them Egypt, Lebanon, and Tunisia – have all been judged to be at greater risk of civil unrest in the wake of the invasion. In several countries, protests over food (and energy) prices and shortages have escalated into larger national political crises. And there are signs that extremist political movements are exploiting the discontent to attract new supporters, further threatening political stability.
Fortunately, all these apocalyptic-sounding trends are reversible. We can share food more efficiently and more fairly. Violent conflict is not an inevitability; it is a choice – a failure of compromise, diplomacy, and respect for the norms that keep us all safe. Similarly, it is in our power to reduce the pressure we put on the natural world, and to help vulnerable societies cope with the effects of environmental breakdown.
As the global population grows, building resilience will be essential to win the fight against hunger. But in an increasingly interconnected and turbulent world, predicting the next crisis will become ever more difficult. The more we can do to end today’s conflicts and prevent future ones, the better off we will be in addressing food insecurity.
Caroline Delgado is Director of the Food, Peace, and Security Program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
First published in Project Syndicate
https://www.project-syndicate.org/magazine/hunger-rising-conflict-climate-change-environmental-breakdown-by-caroline-delgado-2023-06
