Brazil’s food supply system has long been shaped by self-service retail and the processed food industry. Trump’s tariff hike may offer a chance to correct historical distortions by prioritizing local production and fresh foods.

By José Graziano da Silva and Walter Belik, Correio Braziliense | 21/08/2025

The recent tariff hike imposed by the Trump administration on exported agricultural products — including fruits and vegetables — could have an unexpected effect in Brazil: increasing the domestic availability of healthier, higher-quality foods. This is a window of opportunity that, if well used, could drive positive structural changes in people’s diets and in the local supply system.

More than just preventing losses for large producers who will lose part of their export markets, this new context represents a real chance to tackle malnutrition, especially among the poorest. Brazil faces a contradiction: although the country produces fruits and vegetables in abundance, much of the population eats less than the World Health Organization’s recommended minimum of 400 grams per person per day, mainly because of high prices.

According to the latest State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report (SOFI 2025), Brazil has once again exited the Hunger Map, with the prevalence of undernourishment falling below 2.5% of the population. Even so, around 7 million people still face severe food insecurity. When those experiencing moderate food insecurity are added, the number jumps to about 28 million Brazilians who went hungry in 2024.

Even more alarming is the rise in the daily cost of a healthy diet in recent years. SOFI data show that the cost has risen nearly 50% — from US$3.15 in 2017 to US$4.69 in 2024. Estimates indicate that nearly half of this cost comes from fruits and vegetables. This price increase is largely linked to the dismantling of local production and distribution circuits — such as street markets and wholesale outlets — which left food supply almost entirely in the hands of supermarkets.

The report also shows that the share of Brazilians able to afford a healthy diet fell from 27% in 2017 to less than 24% in 2024. In other words, only one in four people can access a balanced diet. In absolute numbers, more than 50 million Brazilians cannot afford a healthy diet that includes fruits and vegetables.

This limited access helps explain why obesity already affects more than a quarter of the adult population, coexisting with nutritional deficiencies and diets heavy in ultra-processed products. Poor diet quality generates high health care costs and reduces productivity.

The government has announced an economic package to compensate Brazilian exporters for losses caused by the tariff hike. It includes R$30 billion in subsidized credit, along with other measures such as expanding public purchases of perishable foods for school meals. In this context, absorbing part of the unexported surplus into the domestic market gains strategic importance.

If integrated into existing public policies — such as the National Food Supply Plan, the Food Acquisition Program (PAA), and the National School Feeding Program (PNAE) — these initiatives could strengthen family farming, expand supply, and reduce consumer prices. Since 2009, at least 30% of school meal purchases must come from family farming. Despite difficulties, studies show that, on average, 24% of these purchases actually come from family farmers.

Among the production chains most affected by the tariff hike are those tied to regional specialties, such as Amazonian açaí, honey from Piauí, coffee from southern Minas Gerais, and fruits from the São Francisco Valley. Larger sectors such as orange juice, ethanol, and meat have powerful lobbies in the U.S. and can negotiate exceptions or redirect exports to other markets.

Supermarket chains have already begun repositioning: about 10% of their revenues now come from fruit and vegetable sales. But the opportunity goes beyond the private sector. Short supply chains — such as farmers’ markets, municipal markets, wholesale outlets, and local networks — must be strengthened to expand distribution reach.

Paradoxically, Trump’s tariff hike may be the chance to correct long-standing distortions in Brazil’s food system. Over the decades, supply was shaped by a self-service retail model and the processed food industry, which marginalized fresh products. If we seize this moment to prioritize local production, strengthen short supply chains, and expand access to fruits and vegetables, we will take a decisive step toward transforming diet quality in the country.

Brazil has already shown, through Fome Zero and school meal programs, that it can respond quickly to structural challenges when government, the private sector, and civil society act together. Today, the challenge is not only to ensure that everyone has something to eat, but also that everyone can eat well.

Publicado originalmente no Correio Braziliense
https://www.correiobraziliense.com.br/opiniao/2025/08/7231078-como-o-tarifaco-pode-melhorar-a-alimentacao-dos-brasileiros.html